The South Africa Model for Israeli Denuclearization

There's a real question whether Israel can be trusted with nukes with the direction its government is heading

The taboo around talking about Israeli nuclear weapons has now thoroughly been broken. In the new Mission Impossible movie there’s a montage of nuclear-armed nations, and Israel is in it. Chris Cuomo asked Benjamin Netanyahu about their nuclear program this week. And Matt Gaetz had a monologue on his show last night in which he suggested the South African model for denuclearizing Israel.

The very fact of the widespread knowledge of Israel’s nuclear weapons program is reason enough to free Mordecai Vanunu, the courageous Israeli who exposed it and was honeytrapped into returning to the country, which he has been unable to leave for decades.

Israel’s nuclear program is substantially the result of espionage and theft, from the Apollo uranium theft to Arnon Milchan’s smuggling of triggers. The question, as always with the Israelis, is whether there was a sort of implicit understanding that the thefts and smuggling would be overlooked.

There are some interesting questions whether Israel actually has operational control over their nuclear weapons, or whether this has been transferred to the U.S. (see DeAnna Calderón here). But nevertheless they are the products of an Israeli nuclear weapons program, and are present in Israel, and most people assume that they are.

Moreover, if the political situation continues to deteriorate, if the U.S. has operational control it will be indefensible to continue to keep them there. If Israeli police are arresting people for wearing pro-peace t-shirts and snitching on each other for watching Al-Jazeera, this is not the sort of government you want to have nuclear weapons fall into the hands of.

The only country to denuclearize is South Africa, which it did in 1989 a few years before apartheid ended. The situation is similar in Israel. If Trump follows through on his promise to Miriam Adelson of recognizing an annexation of the West Bank, then there will be millions of Palestinians who lack the vote, therefore it will be hard to argue, even in the U.S., that there is not an apartheid situation there. Best to take away the nukes before that happens.

Iran has signaled that they would be open to a deal permanently foreclosing a nuclear weapon if Israel gives up theirs as well. This is a good deal and we should try to make it happen. If Trump is able to pull it off, that will be one of the real positive things the history books will cite as his legacy.