Things to Keep an Eye On
Rubber meets the road in Gaza, a word of caution about Palantir, Anduril's close-up, Leo XIV installed, LCM probe, clawed frog smuggling, Orban chooses China
The rubber meets the road in Gaza
As of a few hours ago, the IDF has gone back into Gaza for an extensive operation. The once-respected military has been reduced to embarrassment over 19 months of failing to remove a militia of around 30,000 from an area the size of Mesa, Arizona, at the cost of Israel’s international prestige and domestic comity. A quagmire it is, and one the U.S. might have helped spare Israel from, had Biden, and now Trump, forced the Israeli government to come to terms.
Secretary Rubio, for the first time in his career, found a limit to his sufferance of Israeli misbehavior this week, discovering it within himself to tell Netanyahu the humanitarian situation in Gaza is unacceptable. Now that the army is heading back in, one assumes the humanitarian situation is getting worse, so one would hope Rubio’s criticism intensifies. This is actually how it’s supposed to work, folks.
The incentives of the Israeli government are such that Netanyahu is being pushed to take and hold the enclave, now. Most of his coalition allies don’t much care if that means killing all the civilians there. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East negotiator, said this week that the U.S. didn’t intend to stop them. Does Trump want that on his hands?
Former IDF leadership is practically inviting the Trump administration to put Netanyahu in his place, with hundreds of former security officials telling the U.S. to ignore him, condemning any plan for annexation of the West Bank, and calling for a release of hostages. Will they prevail, or Miriam Adelson’s cash? Earlier this past week title registration for land in the West Bank began. Trump, to his credit, appears to have ignored Netanyahu in his decision to lift Syrian sanctions, a welcome break the American norm of running Middle East policy from the AIPAC branch office of the Israeli foreign ministry.
This was apparently enough for a bunch of former Biden foreign policy hands to express amazement, though Ned Price took a snide shot that the administration had abdicated “that concerted pressure on the Israelis” they never brought.
France’s foreign minister has backed a call to revisit Israel’s compliance with its association agreement with the EU, and in Cannes a number of film luminaries have signed on to a statement about the shameful silence of the industry as a whole. In Israel last week, there were raids on Haredi communities that refuse military service. Some polling shows a strong majority of Republicans support negotiations with Iran over the military strikes Mark Levin has been slamming his juicebox on the table to demand, so the FDD, neocon wing is an electoral liability for the party.
Pope Leo XIV’s installation Mass
Today in Rome the first American pope got his pallium and ring. Earlier this week the Dicastery for Interreligious Affairs wished the Buddhists a happy Vesak.
Tulsi Gabbard tosses National Intelligence Council chief
Michael Collins was close to Michael Morrell, who is very Israeli, so it’s good they’re getting tossed:
The director relocated the council from the CIA, back to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), according to The Hill, and dismissed acting head of the council Mike Collins, and his deputy Maria Langan-Riekhof.
Competing claims over Litigation Capital Management probe
Intelligence Online says the Dubai public prosecutor is looking into them:
Following revelations in Intelligence Online, a spokesperson for the Dubai Public Prosecutor has confirmed its office is investigating LCM and its chief executive Patrick Moloney for money laundering offences.
The company denies it.
Anduril’s close-up
Tonight a 60 Minutes episode on Anduril and its founder Palmer Luckey will air, and the trailers released so far aren’t good. The Roadrunner interceptor drone has been shown at the White House, but it’s based on the Iranian Shahed 136, just upcharged a whole lot. That might be one reason Trump has been talking about Iranian drones.
A word of caution about Palantir
Palantir’s stock price is up about 10x since the war in Gaza began. They’ve been on a hot streak in part because of how they’ve zigged while others are zagging, taking a strong position in favor of Netanyahu’s ethnic cleansing. Unfortunately, when it comes to their hiring, because Alex Karp has offered to take on as many as his fellow genocide supporters as he can, it’s probably stuffed with sayanim now. That’s what I would do, and it means the deep state is going to be suspicious of it. They also aren’t all that competitive in places where there are real growth opportunities, like in Asia and the Middle East, and Karp’s positioning is going to limit their ability to expand in Europe. So they’re probably overvalued, and closer to the peak of their influence than actually reaching exit velocity.
Jared Kushner’s plan to redevelop the Yugoslav Army HQ hits a snag
A forgery!
The future of a luxury property development by Donald Trump's son-in-law in Belgrade has been thrown into doubt over suspicions that documents used to revoke the site's protected status were forged.
Jared Kushner's Affinity Partners signed a 99-year land deal with the Serbian government last year to redevelop the former Yugoslav Army Headquarters, just months after its designation as a "cultural asset" was removed.
No work has yet started at the site, which has not been rebuilt since it was bombed several times in 1999 during the NATO air campaign that ended the war in Kosovo.
Charges in Boston over Russian clawed frog smuggling
The frog of war, via DOJ:
According to the charging documents, on Feb. 16, 2025, Petrova arrived at Logan International Airport in Boston via an inbound flight from Paris. Upon her arrival, Petrova was stopped by Customs & Border Protection agents after a law enforcement canine allegedly alerted its handler to the defendant’s checked duffel bag on the baggage carousel. Per protocol, law enforcement removed the bag from the carousel and brought it to an agricultural secondary inspection area for further screening. There, an officer inspected the contents of the bag and allegedly discovered the biological items: a foam box containing clawed frog embryos in microcentrifuges, as well as embryonic samples in paraffin well stages and on mounted dyed slides. All biological products require a permit for entry and require the individual to make a declaration to Customs & Border Protection at the port of first arrival.
Orban government: We’re sticking with China
From the South China Morning Post:
Decoupling from China is a “red line” in Hungary’s relations with the United States, a deputy minister has said, in rare remarks clarifying Budapest’s thinking on its close ties with both superpowers.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has spent years cementing his position as Europe’s most pro-Trump and pro-China leader. With the US government now suggesting that its allies must choose between the two, many speculate that Budapest could find itself in an awkward position.
“Definitely not. That’s a red line for us, we’re having excellent trade relations with China, and China has become one of the biggest investors in Hungary,” said Levente Magyar, a deputy minister for foreign affairs and trade, when asked in Brussels on Thursday if Hungary was willing to decouple from China, “if that’s what Trump wants”.
For people who wish to see the Turkic peoples unite as a competing power bloc next to China and Russia, this is a bit of a problem. Maybe it’s why Rod Dreher is in the Free Press worrying about whether we’re living by overly emphatic truths.
Gil Barndollar sues the CIA
Barndollar was at CUA and Defense Priorities for a while and claims his spots on Tucker Carlson are the reason he was denied a clearance:
As the plaintiff in this case, Barndollar claims the CIA improperly collected and used information about his constitutionally protected speech and professional writings, which formed the basis for denying his security clearance.
“The Defendant either intentionally, recklessly, or with callous indifference to the federally protected rights of the Plaintiff has threatened, silenced, and/or chilled Plaintiff’s rights to freedom of speech and association by using Plaintiff’s career as the basis to deny him his security clearance and position in the CIA,” the lawsuit, Barndollar v. Central Intelligence Agency, noted.
Another reason might be that he was recently on a trip to Israel, as HuffPo reported. Barndollar is an ambitious man and that gets in the way of his willingness to say things that are true about the Israelis, he’s written a lot about the recruiting crisis but nothing about the main reason for it, which is that nobody wants to fight another war for Likud.
Gerard Depardieu convicted of sexual assault
In Paris:
Gerard Depardieu has been given an 18-month suspended prison sentence for sexual assault in a case that has further stained the French actor’s reputation.
The Paris Criminal Court ordered the 76-year-old, who was not present in court for the verdict, be added to the sex offenders’ register.
He was convicted of assaulting two women on a 2021 film set and was ordered to pay €10,000 in moral damages to both of the victims: a set dresser, 54, identified only as Amelie, and a 34-year-old assistant director.
Chinese pill-making equipment indictment
An interesting one:
A federal grand jury returned a 21-count indictment against a Chinese company and three Chinese nationals for their alleged role in the illegal importation of pill-making equipment, the Department of Justice announced.
According to an indictment returned April 23 and unsealed today, CapsulCN International Co. Ltd. (CapsulCN) and Xiochuan “Ricky” Pan, 40, Tingyan “Monica” Yang, 37, and Xi “Inna” Chen, 30, all of the People’s Republic of China, were charged with smuggling, Controlled Substances Act, and money laundering offenses in connection with CapsulCN’s unlawful import and distribution of tableting machines (also known as “pill presses”), encapsulating machines, and counterfeit die molds capable of producing millions of potentially lethal fake pills. The indictment also charges Pan, CapsulCN’s principal officer and a shareholder, with leading a continuing criminal enterprise. Additionally, four internet domains used by CapsulCN to market and sell illicit pill-making equipment to U.S. customers were seized today in connection with this investigation.
Crypto gets real
It turns out people who are rich because of technology useful for money laundering find themselves in need of state law enforcement when someone comes to their houses and tries to beat them to death with a wrench, the Wall Street Journal reported this week:
The brazen attack was the latest in a wave of violent abductions around the world, including several in the U.S., targeting crypto executives and their families. Victims have been pistol whipped, abducted, and—in two cases—had fingers severed.
The criminals’ goal: millions of dollars in ransom in cryptocurrency.
The assaults are often called “wrench attacks” because they rely on simple tools for inflicting pain to coerce victims, rather than sophisticated tools for hacking them.
Cali cartel boss was working for the DEA
From AP:
Time and again, the reputed henchman for the Cali cartel evaded capture — or worse fates — as he built a money-laundering network stretching across four continents. He did so, authorities have alleged, with ruthlessness, street smarts and a willingness to bribe a slew of South American police officers and politicians.
All the while, Marín had an even more powerful ally in his corner: the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration.
For years, the elite narcotics agency claimed it was investigating the Colombian importer, telling the U.S. Justice Department he was among DEA’s top targets. In reality, the relationship was more fraught, with Marín briefly signed up as an informant even as he assiduously corrupted agents with a movable feast of prostitutes, fine dining and expensive gifts, an Associated Press investigation found.